Flight Blog


We came across an unusually lucid piece of business reporting the other day. The Secrets Behind Crazy Air-travel Prices cuts through the muck and gives a very good overview of how airlines price tickets. Read it once, then read it again. You won't like it, but it will start to make sense. Here are some important takeaways—if you don't remember anything else, remember these points...

  • Operating an airline is very expensive
  • Its source of revenue, the airline seat, is highly perishable. The moment the plane takes off, that revenue opportunity is lost forever. It is often compared to a rotting banana
  • Your seat might look the same as the guy's in 15F, but he actually bought a different product. Most likely, so did everyone on the plane
  • The landscape is littered with failures


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United Airlines says it plans to fly between Washington, DC and Accra, the capital of Ghana. The service begins June 20 with once-a-day service.

There are special fares for travel between June 20 and August 29, 2010:

  • From Washington Dulles – $706
  • From, San Francisco/Los Angeles – $879
  • From Denver – $865
  • From Chicago – $738

For more information visit the airline's website.


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Our total passenger numbers are in for January and the news is great: up 6% compared to the same month last year. Here's how the January growth broke out by airline:

  • Allgiant traffic up 8%
  • American traffic up 25%
  • Delta traffic up 70%. This number is misleading. It reflects the merger of Delta of Northwest. Simply put, the Northwest numbers have been folded into the Delta numbers.
  • United traffic down 4%. That may sound bad, but it's actually good. That's the smallest monthly decline the airline has had in Springfield since December 2007!

The other day we were putting together slides for presentation and came up with this graph.

It illustrates the percentage of passenger growth or decline for every month between January of 2008 and January of 2010. Look at the valley...the depths of the recession. Yipes!!!

Our aviation consultant predicts Springfield will have a 2.8% increase in total passengers this year, while the nation as a whole will have a 3.2% decline. Keeping our fingers crossed!


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Joe has a question in response to the Flying Fibs post:

"Thanks for posting this. I actually flew last Friday, on the Allegiant flight of Las Vegas, and let me tell you, the pilot was getting hot after the tug spinning his wheels on push back, the deicing truck getting stuck on the ice. Once the deicer got to our plane, it did take longer than the “10 minutes” the pilot said it would, however, the plane had sat for 2 hours between flights. Most of the passengers sitting on the left side of the plane, including my wife, really expressed their displeasure watching the two American Eagle planes push back after us, get deiced, and leave before us! Just curious, does American have their own deicing crews/trucks? All in all, another pleasant experience flying from SGF."

Yes, American has its own de-icing crews/truck. Based on what you've described, I suspect the issue with the Allegiant de-icing was the shear size of the plane. Remember, those American jets you saw being pushed back are considerably smaller than the MD80 jet that Allegiant uses. The MD-80 is a lot heavier.  That probably explains why the tug was having traction problems, while the American tugs were doing just fine. It's also possible that the American tugs had a cleaner ramp surface (less snow and ice on the pavement). As for the Allegiant de-icing truck getting stuck, that's one of those problems that make airport winter operations such a drag!

Vinnie watched the news last night and saw the story about our airport's growth in 2009. He has a question:

"I caught the end of the segment about the state of the airport on the 9pm Fox local news. They mentioned something about Southwest Airlines flying to one destination three times a day and carrying 100,000 passengers. I thought that Southwest didn’t look at destinations with less than 1,000,000 in their metro. I assume that this comment was a hypothetical about what it would take for Southwest to come to town and why it isn’t a possibility, but I was hoping you could clear this up. Thanks."

Well, I didn't see that newscast, but I think I know what was going on. Airport director Gary Cyr was asked why Southwest doesn't operate in Springfield. When he gets that question, he usually responds by telling people how many passengers Southwest would want to carry in the market over a year's time. It goes something like this: "Southwest would want to have five flights a day, with the goal of filling a 130 seat aircraft to at least 80% capacity."  In order to generate that many passengers, you need a metro area with a million people. Make sense?

Chris has a question about the announcement yesterday of Frontier service to the airport south Branson:

"How did Branson get Frontier Airlines to fly to Denver? On top of that its a much bigger plane than United offers. An A320."

Well, first of all I don't think the service is going to be on an Airbus A320.  The Frontier press release says it's on a E190. That's a smaller jet, made by Embraer, that typically seats 80.

How did Branson get Frontier? We don't know exactly, and neither that airport or Frontier is going to tell you.  We do know that the service is being subsidized, in some form or fashion, by the airport.  In other words, the airline is being paid to provide the service by the airport.  Frontier would never fly in there on its own dime because they're isn't enough natural demand for the service to make it financially viable.

It's also possible that somebody besides the airport is helping subsidize the service. The airport and Express Jet have approached numerous small city airports and have asked those airports to pony up money for service. Rockford, Illinois is one example. I'm not suggesting that the Denver airport is paying up. You can be certain that it is not. I'm just making the point that there could be money coming to Frontier from more than one entity.


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It’s good news in hard times—our airport is the only major airport in the region to finish 2009 with positive passenger growth. We posted a four percent increase in total passengers, when compared to the year before. The growth came despite an 11 percent cut in the airport’s 2009 flight schedule. Similar cuts occurred at airports across the country. As a whole, the nation’s airports experienced approximately a 6% decline in passengers.

The news gets better. Our aviation analyst, Michael Boyd, is forecasting that 2010 will bring us a 2.8% increase in passengers. He expects a 3.2% decline for the nation as a whole.

What gives? Why are we doing so well? There are several reasons; we can't point to any one thing:

  • Low fares. In the fourth quarter of 2008 airlines began lowering fares in response to poor sales. The low fare trend continued through 2009.
  • The airport’s new passenger terminal. The impact of the new terminal is hard to quantify, but there’s no doubt that the building’s “wow” factor, along with its ease of use have helped draw more customers to the airport.
  • New terminal advertising and media attention in the first and second quarters raised public airport awareness of the airport.
  • Allegiant Air growth. In 2009 the low fare airline grew its passenger numbers 42 percent in the Springfield-Branson market.
  • The new airport south of Branson. When that airport had service to Dallas, American airlines, in Springfield, matched Branson’s fare. Bottom line: the Branson airport created airline competition.
  • The relative strength of the Southwest Missouri economy, compared to other regions of the country.

There's more good news–we just got this data in today:  the average fare from the Springfield-Branson airport was down 27.5% in the third quarter of 2009. That's compared to the same quarter in 2008. Here's the dollar translation: the average fare went from $288.18 to $208.72.

So, while our  2010 forecast is good, and fares are going down, be warned: things could go south in a hurry. The price of oil could spike. That would cause fares to go through the roof. The apparent economic recovery could sputter. A terrorist attack could cause demand to plummet.

So it’s good news for now, but these are uncertain times...


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